This post is even later than usual. So just a couple of quick thoughts and charts. Tomorrow, I think we will see a significant increase in the mkt. moves, and I think that will continue to Friday. It has been getting more and more volatile this week, be it ever so slowly. I am leaning towards a down move here, but it is certainly not the clearest of signals. The INDU and COMPQ both look the same. The NAS has been incredibly strong, and when I see this I tend to want to short the QQQQ as soon as I see weakness. It seems they fall a wee bit quicker. I don’t see weakness yet, but I will be watching for it.
I was going to post the VIX and VXN tonight, but they both look the same. There is this strong move up and they both have filled the gap. Now, the question is whether or not this is a gap and go or a gap and drop. We will know tomorrow.
The SPX is near very clear resistance and it should at least stall a bit here. This could be a double top set up. The RSI is over bought, but the MACD is still rising. It is not a clear signal either way, but in considering the recent big move down and rally, I think that this will hold, at least for short-term. Of course if the NAS and RUT keep climbing this resistance will too give way.
DELL has more than filled this gap, re-tested the high and failed to close above this down trend line. The v has increased for two days in a row, but left big top wicks. If the v increase again tomorrow this could move above that down trend, but seeing those top wicks lends me to believe this will drop at least a little from here.
A few days ago I thought this may be setting up for another great short trade, but now I think the opposite. This looks more like a bull flag and today there was a bullish engulfing candle. Low v today, but it has been trending lower for several days. I won’t trade until I see confirmation, but if it does bust to upside, then I think it will take out that resistance.
In closing: I expect more action tomorrow and a bigger close, one in the double digits one way or another. Trade well and prosper. AKOT
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